Laying out the conditions: To pursue this possibility, what would have to be true?

Nice-to-have conditions need to be culled so that every condition is actually a binding one. The process of reverse engineering is complete only when each group member understands the logic of the possibility and can say, “Yes, if all of those conditions were

true, this would be a great possibility. And if any single condition weren’t true, this would not be a good possibility.

1. Identify Barriers to Choice

The fourth step in the process constitutes a 180-degree flip. The previous step stayed assiduously away from opinions on whether the conditions would hold true. This creates an environment that enables each team member to explore the logic behind the possibility and to codify and organize it. Now, and only now, you can cast a critical eye on the conditions your team has identified. The task is to assess which of the conditions your team believes are the least likely to hold true. In other words, now that you’ve specified what would have to be true for this possibility to be a great idea, which of those conditions worry the team the most and seem the least likely to be true? These conditions constitute the barriers that keep you and the team from choosing that possibility. Until you know if they are true or not, you can’t move ahead. In this step, it is extremely important to pay close attention to the group member who is the most skeptical that a condition will hold true; a skeptic can provide extremely valuable insurance against making a bad choice. So

skeptical group members must be encouraged to raise, not suppress, concerns at this point in the process. Even if only one person has concerns about a given condition, it should remain on the list of key barriers.

That, in sum, is the process for choosing between possibilities for where to play and how to win. First, frame a choice. Second, explore possibilities to broaden the set of mutually exclusive possibilities. Third, for each possibility, ask, what would have to be true for this to be a great idea, using the logic flow framework to structure your thinking. Fourth, determine which of the conditions is the least likely to actually hold true. Fifth, design tests against those crucial barriers to choice. Six, conduct tests. Finally, in light of the outcome of the tests and how those outcomes stack up against predetermined standards of proof, select the best strategic choice possibility. This process broadens the possibilities up front and then systematically narrows the field. It leverages different perspectives to enrich the discussion, rather than bogging it down.

“REVERSE-ENGINEERING DOS AND DON’TS

• Don’t spend a lot of time up front analyzing everything you can; instead, use reverse

engineering to pinpoint only what you really need to know.

• Do frame a clear and important choice up front; make it real and significant.

• Do explore a wide range of where-to-play and how-to-win possibilities, rather than narrowing the list early on to those that feel realistic; unexpected possibilities often have interesting and helpful elements that can otherwise be dismissed out of hand. Learn from them.

• Do stay focused on the most important question (what would have to be true for this to be a winning possibility?), listing the conditions under which this possibility would be a really good one.

• Don’t forget to go back and eliminate any nice-to-have conditions; every condition should be truly binding—if it weren’t true, you wouldn’t pursue the possibility.

• Do encourage skeptics to express concerns at the specify-barriers stage; have them articulate the precise nature of their concerns about specific conditions.

• Don’t have proponents of a given possibility set and perform the tests; ask the

skeptics to do it. If the skeptics are satisfied in the end, everyone else will be too.

• Do test the biggest barrier first. Start with the condition the group feels is least likely to be true. If it isn’t true, the conditions required do not hold and you can stop testing.

• Do use a facilitator to run the reverse-engineering process; it helps to have someone to attend to process and group dynamics as you work through the thinking tasks.