The truly important features of the decisions Vail and Sloan made are neither their novelty nor their controversial nature. They are:

1. The clear realization that the problem was generic and could only be solved through a decision which established a rule, a principle;

1. The definition of the specifications which the answer to the problem had to satisfy, that is, of the “boundary conditions”;

1. The thinking through what is “right,” that is, the solution which will fully satisfy the specifications before attention is given to the compromises, adaptations, and concessions needed to make the decision acceptable;

1. The building into the decision of the action to carry it out;

1. The “feedback” which tests the validity and effectiveness of the decision against the actual course of events.

These are the elements of the effective decision process.

The general strategy is to tackle problems by adaptively translating the objective into intermediate goals and states— completing blocks— and basic actions— finding individual numbers. That strategy iterates, adapts, retreats when attempted solutions proves less promising than they appear. The methods of analysis that come naturally to us are oblique, and we do not use or enjoy direct, mechanical approaches. Anyone who buys a computer program to solve a Sudoku problem has missed the point of the game.

In chapter 7 I described a spectrum of problems. At one end were those— like nought and crosses— best solved directly; at the other were those— the pursuit of happiness— best achieved obliquely. There is an analogous spectrum of decision-making styles, from direct to oblique.

The direct decision maker perceives a direct connection between intentions and outcomes; the oblique decision maker believes that the intention is neither necessary nor sufficient to secure the outcome. The direct problem solver reviews all possible outcomes; the oblique problem solver assembles all available information; the oblique decision maker recognises the limits of his or her knowledge. The direct decision maker maximises his or her objectives; the oblique decision maker is continuously adaptive. The direct problem solver can always find an explanation for his or her choices; the oblique problem solver sometimes just finds the right answer. The direct decision maker believes that order is the production of a directing mind; the oblique decision maker recognises that order often emerges spontaneously— no one fully grasps it. The direct problem solver insists on consistency, on always treating the same problem in the same way; the oblique problem solver never encounters exactly the same problem twice. The direct decision maker emphasises the importance of rationality of process; the oblique decision maker believes that decision making is inherently subjective and prefers to emphasise good judgment.

Conclusions

21. The practice of obliquity

There is not, and will not be, such a science. Our objectives are typically imprecise and multi-faceted, and change as we work towards them, and properly so. Our decisions depend on the responses of others and on what we anticipate those responses will be. The world is complex, imperfectly known, and our knowledge of it is incomplete, and theses things will remain true however much we learn and however much we analyse it.

We do not solve problems in the way the concept of decision science implies because we can’t. The achievement of the great statesman is not to reach the best decision fastest but to mediate effectively among competing views and values.

The truly important features of the decisions Vail and Sloan made are neither their novelty nor their controversial nature. They are:

1. The clear realization that the problem was generic and could only be solved through a decision which established a rule, a principle;

1. The definition of the specifications which the answer to the problem had to satisfy, that is, of the “boundary conditions”;

1. The thinking through what is “right,” that is, the solution which will fully satisfy the specifications before attention is given to the compromises, adaptations, and concessions needed to make the decision acceptable;

1. The building into the decision of the action to carry it out;

1. The “feedback” which tests the validity and effectiveness of the decision against the actual course of events.

These are the elements of the effective decision process.