NINE: Cuda
âTo distinguish himself, Huang had to pursue a strategy that so defied conventional business logic that ATI wouldnât follow. He had to build an exploratory product, like a $300 entry-level scientific supercomputer that not only didnât have competitors but also didnât even have obvious customers. The zero-billion-dollar market, by definition, was one that only he would participate inâone that only he would even see. Huang was going to build a baseball diamond in a cornfield and wait for the players to arrive.
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The success rate of parallel computing was zero percent before we came along,â Huang said, rattling off a list of forgotten start-ups. âLiterally zero. Everyone who tried to make it into a business had failed.â Huang ignored this dismal record, pursuing his unconventional vision in open defiance of Wall Street for more than a decade. He looked for customers besides gamers, ones who needed a lot of computing powerâweather forecasters, radiologists, deep-water oil prospectors, that sort of thing. During this time, Nvidiaâs stock price floundered, and he had to fend off corporate raiders to retain his job.
The product was known as a âgraphics accelerator,â and at least thirty-five competitors were trying to build one. Huang worried there was no space for a thirty-sixth. The leading expert in computer graphics was Jon Peddie, who had written several textbooks on the topic. Huang had reached out to Peddie to get a sense of the market, and the two soon became friends, with Huang calling incessantly, asking questions late into the night. Peddie advised Huang that the space was too crowded and that many of the best engineers were already working for other start-ups. âI told him not to do it,â Peddie said. âThat was the best advice he never took.
Huang had managed to stay ahead of his competitors so far, but his asset-light âmerchantâ business was essentially just a collection of engineers sitting around a Silicon Valley office park. If those engineers werenât constantly developing new, difficult-to-replicate technology,
manufacturers in Asia would start knocking off his chips, and Nvidia would cease to exist. âIf we donât reinvent computer graphics, if we donât reinvent ourselves, and we donât open the canvas for the things that we can do on this processor, we will be commoditized out of existence,â Huang later said. Not to gamble was the biggest risk of all.
By 2012, the situation was becoming dire. Nvidiaâs stock price had not appreciated in more than a decade, and although revenues and employment at the company had grown considerably, profits remained flat. Huang was bringing supercomputing to the masses, but the masses didnât want it.
Disruptive technologies, Christensen had observed, often grew out of hobbyist communities. They were developed using âbootlegged resourcesâ in which âoff-the-shelf componentsâ were redeployed for something other than their intended purpose. They started out wonky but rapidly improved along attributes of performance that established players ignored.
But even once you had absorbed this lesson, it wasnât easy to implement. Pursuing niche markets cost profits, making investors question your sanity. This, too, Christensen had foretold: âOne of the reasons managers at established firms find it difficult to serve emerging markets is that their investors and customers tell them not to.â
That was the real secret of The Innovatorâs Dilemma, which readers often missed. It was not a book about how to succeed; it was a book about how not to fail. Christensenâs book wasnât a how-to for start-ups but a counterinsurgency manual for senior managers at stagnating firms. Thirteen years in, Huang felt that Nvidia was at risk of becoming such a firm, and it was as much paranoia as optimism that led him to pursue the mad-science market.