Conclusions

21. The practice of obliquity

There is not, and will not be, such a science. Our objectives are typically imprecise and multi-faceted, and change as we work towards them, and properly so. Our decisions depend on the responses of others and on what we anticipate those responses will be. The world is complex, imperfectly known, and our knowledge of it is incomplete, and theses things will remain true however much we learn and however much we analyse it.

We do not solve problems in the way the concept of decision science implies because we can’t. The achievement of the great statesman is not to reach the best decision fastest but to mediate effectively among competing views and values.

The world is radically uncertain. Information is imperfect. No contract can anticipate all possible contingencies. Not only do we not know what will happen – we often have only limited insight into the range of things that might happen. Unforeseen events will require adaptation. But by the time such adaptation is required, both parties to the contract will have committed to the relationship.

Some economists declare that a ‘recession’ is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And as I write this book there is endless speculation in the economic press as to whether there is, or will be, a recession. But the answer to that question is not what businesspeople or policymakers want to know – or ought to want to know. They want the answer to a question less specific but more pertinent to their decisions. ‘What is going on here?’ That formulation sounds trite. But we live in a world of radical uncertainty, and every situation, every point of decision, is unique. And in that world, the question ‘What is going on here?’ needs to be posed again and again.

The focus on the firm as a collection of capabilities gives a different and more illuminating perspective for understanding the extraordinary diversity of business organisations and of businesspeople over geographies and over time. The core ideas in this book – collective intelligence, radical uncertainty, disciplined pluralism, relational contracts and the mediating hierarchy – have been extensively developed and discussed by earlier writers, though much of that work has been outside the context of business organisation. The relevance of each to the argument of this book arises from a belief that in the modern world successful commercial relationships are not simply instrumental and transactional; they are social and are embedded in a wider framework of communities and teams. That transactional view was both incorrect and unattractive. This book is written in the hope that a better account of how business and its stakeholders flourish will point the way not just to a better understanding of business but to the better conduct of business itself. In a successor volume I will try to explain some of the implications of that understanding for both business policy and public

Policy.

So, from here on in, I will try to refer to ‘decision making systems’ rather than ‘artificial intelligences’. Corporations are systems, and the make decisions, so they’re decisions making systems. The question is whether they’re black boxes or not — whether we are able to attribute the actions of the corporation to individual human beings within it.