We don’t need to predict every detail, nor could we if we tried. But if we want to make the future better, we need to identify actions that have positive effects on balance over very long timescales.

When we look at history, we see that the predominant culture in a society tends to entrench itself, eliminate the competition, and take steps to replicate itself over time. Indeed, many moral views regard their own lock-in as desirable.

When confronted with the empirical and evaluative complexity that faces us, it can be easy to feel clueless, as if there’s nothing at all we can do. But that would be too pessimistic. Even if we’re walking backwards into the future—and even if the terrain we’re walking on is unexplored, it’s dark and foggy, and we have few clues to guide us—nonetheless, some plans are smarter than others. We can employ three rules of thumb.

Maintaining a diversity of cultures and political systems leaves open more potential trajectories for civilisation; the same is true, to an even greater degree, for ensuring that civilisation doesn’t end altogether.

Schein et al. 2020; Green and McClellan 2020.” (notes to footnote 24, Chapter 10, p.234)