We defined a “luck event” as one that meets three tests: First, you didn’t cause it; second, it has a significant potential consequence, good or bad; and third, it has an element of surprise, some aspect of the event is unpredictable before it happens. Using this definition, the evidence showed a lot of luck in the history of these companies. But— and this is the crucial point—we also found comparable amounts of luck in the control set of comparison cases we studied! The big winners did not generally get more good luck, less bad luck, bigger spikes of luck, or better-timed luck than their comparisons. What the best achieved, instead, was a higher return on luck. Hansen and I learned that the question is not whether you’ll get luck along the way—you certainly will get luck, both good luck and bad. The critical question is what you do with the luck that you get. I’ve come to believe that about 50 percent of great leadership is what you do with the unexpected.

Those who see life, business, and the pursuit of accomplishment as about finding that one big hit—the one big lucky break—fail to grasp how true greatness happens. No great company, no great career, no great body of work comes about by a single event, a single flip of the coin, a single hand played. Of course, persistence doesn’t guarantee success; and the best leaders understand that they may need to change strategies, plans, and methods on the long path to building a great company. But they also understand and live out this simple truth: Luck favors the persistent.

10X MULTIPLIER—RETURN ON LUCK

Finally, there’s an input that amplifies all the other principles in the framework: the principle of return on luck. Throughout all our research, a question gnawed at me: What’s the role of luck? Our research showed that the great companies were not generally luckier than the comparisons—they didn’t get more good luck, less bad luck, bigger spikes of luck, or better timing of luck. Instead, they got a higher return on luck, making more of their luck than others. The critical question is not, “Will you get luck?” but “What will you do with the luck that you get?” If you get a high return on a good-luck event, it can add a big boost of momentum to the flywheel. But if you’re ill-prepared to absorb a bad-luck event and fail to get a high return on your bad luck, it can stall or imperil the flywheel. About 50 percent of great leadership is what you do with the unexpected.

(Again, to review from the previous chapter, a “luck event” meets three tests: First, you didn’t cause it; second, it has a significant potential consequence, good or bad; and third, it has an element of surprise, some aspect of the event is unpredictable before it happens.) Any framework that didn’t account for unpredictable and unforeseen events would be incomplete, and I couldn’t be intellectually satisfied until we wrestled with the question of luck. The concept of return on luck accounts for the undeniable fact that luck happens (a lot) yet captures the essential truth that luck itself cannot cause greatness. Catastrophic bad luck can kill a potentially great company, but good luck cannot make a company great. Luck doesn’t build great companies that last; people do.

By learning to pay attention to what’s happening in front of us, we gain more than the sensations of life; we also increase our ability to act. We’re not thinking about what’s already happened, about what might happen, about what we have to do later; we are alert to the moment, which is where any action must take place. If our intention is to connect with other people, being present is what makes that possible.