Real-time analytics make it possible to assess job performance minute by minute—catnip to control-obsessed managers. Two academics, Brett Frischmann and Evan Selinger, call this “time cards on steroids.” They rightly note that “technical innovations have made it increasingly easy for managers to quickly and cheaply collect, process, evaluate and act upon massive amounts of information.” Given the relentless growth of the bureaucratic class, and their susceptibility to “controlitis,” where would you expect this to lead?

Inevitably, the significance of each dimension of the where-to-play choice will vary by context. Each dimension must be considered thoughtfully and will hold different weight in different situations. A start-up might focus first on the products or services to be offered. A stagnating giant might focus on customers—looking for a deeper understanding of needs

and new ways to approach segmentation—to narrow and refine an overly broad where-to-

play choice.

Similarly, the CEO Life Cycle will help leaders play a better game by anticipating the evolving challenges of the CEO job and preparing for them. It will help CEOs recognize when they are heading into a new stage of their tenure and stay vigilant about avoiding common pitfalls made in that stage. Additionally, it will help them stay on the offense, proactively engaging in new learning and personal growth, ahead of the curve, as they progress through the stages. The findings can also help boards anticipate issues CEOs may face and engage with CEOs more vigorously to provide support at critical junctures.

Rigorous data analytics should inform intuitive thinking. Shantanu Narayen, for example, stressed its role in his decision to move Adobe to cloud-based service. The process involved “a lot of discipline,” he said. “We ran pilot in some countries. We got feedback. People give us credit for bold decisions. But we put in a lot of work.” Yet, when asked how he evolved as a CEO, he said, “I got much more comfortable with pattern matching.” Discerning a pattern you’ve seen before in a new situation is one of the signature abilities of informed intuition. But spotting patterns, as Narayen cautioned, can be “both a plus and a minus.” Doing it well requires building up a robust mental archive of patterns seen through time. With that strong repertoire, pattern matching can be remarkably powerful. Without that archive, it can go badly awry. But even with good experience, it’s easy to fall into the trap of confirmation bias— seeing a pattern because you expect it to be there. It’s essential to rigorously challenge your intuitions.

Narayen emphasized that to ensure you’re both listening to your intuition and checking it, it’s important to create a process for combining your informed intuition with that of others, as Paz did.

In general, board engagement in the succession process is limited until the time of the decision, which is usually within a year of the transition. Then, they might rush to judgment based on just one or perhaps two interviews with candidates, people with whom they’ve often had little or no other interactions. So little hands-on knowledge of candidates fuels the numerous cognitive biases in their decision-making. One bias is the preference for simplifying narratives, or relying on stereotypes about what a CEO should look and sound like to privilege candidates who are super confident or have a powerful physical presence or can claim bold, even brash, achievements.

We confronted this bias when we were advising about a succession and recommended the board take a more serious look at a candidate. They’d dismissed Alex as not having the needed smarts and being just a solid “doubles hitter” rather than the star slugger they were looking for. But our assessments indicated he had the smarts in spades, and as a doubles hitter, he was a real standout. We brought some of his accomplishments that had been underappreciated back to the board’s attention. We also coached him to project a stronger image, including sprucing up his attire. The combination did the trick, and the board selected Alex, who went on to achieve a great deal of success in an eight-year tenure.