As ChatGPT swept the world by storm in early 2023, a Chinese AI researcher would share with me a clear-eyed analysis that unraveled OpenAIās inevitability argument. What OpenAI did never could have happened anywhere but Silicon Valley, he said. In China, which rivals the US in AI talent, no team of researchers and engineers, no matter how impressive, would get $1 billion, let alone ten times more, to develop a massively expensive technology without an articulated vision of exactly what it would look like and what it would be good for.
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As Baidu raced to develop its ChatGPT equivalent, employees working to advance AI technologies for drug discovery had to suspend their research and cede their computer chips to develop the chatbot instead. The current AI paradigm is also choking off alternative paths to AI development. The number of independent researchers not affiliated with or receiving funding from the tech industry has rapidly dwindled, diminishing the diversity of ideas in the field not tied to short-term commercial benefit. Companies themselves, which once invested in sprawling exploratory research, can no longer afford to do so under the weight of the generative AI development bill. Younger generations of scientists are falling in line with the new status quo to make themselves more employable. What was once unprecedented has become the norm.
Now, AI is the harbinger of the fourth industrial revolution. The keystone of the modern superpower. AGI, if ever reached, will solve climate change, enable affordable health care, provide equitable education. OpenAI is the poster child for this line of thought. It cannot say how the technology will deliver on these promisesāonly that the staggering price society needs to pay for what it is developing will someday be worth it.
Through the course of my reporting, I would come to conclude something even more startling. Not even in Silicon Valley did other companies and investors move until after ChatGPT to funnel unqualified sums into scaling. That included Google and DeepMind, OpenAIās original rival. It was specifically OpenAI, with its billionaire origins, unique ideological bent, and Altmanās singular drive, network, and fundraising talent, that created a ripe combination for its particular vision to emerge and take over. āI get the sense that Sam is the most ambitious person on the planet,ā a former employee says. In other words, everything OpenAI did was the opposite of inevitable; the explosive global costs of its massive deep learning models, and the perilous race it sparked across the industry to scale such models to planetary limits, could only have ever arisen from the one place it actually did.
OpenAI didnāt just need more data centers to serve ChatGPT. It still needed far-more-powerful supercomputers to train its future generations of models. To fulfill that aggressive and escalating demand, the two companies were sketching out a new unprecedented project called Stargate to OpenAI and Mercury to Microsoft: a single supercomputer that, for its construction alone, would cost an estimated $100 billion. The empire of AI was returning to the exact same form of expansion as the empires of old: To fuel its growth, it needed more material resources and, crucially, more land.
The critiques that I lay out in this book of OpenAIās and Silicon Valleyās broader vision are not by any means meant to dismiss AI in its entirety. What I reject is the dangerous notion that broad benefit from AI can only be derived fromāindeed, will ever emerge fromāa vision for the technology that requires the complete capitulation of our privacy, our agency, and our worth, including the value of our labor and art, toward an ultimately imperial centralization project.
Te Hiku shows us another way. It imagines how AI and its development could be exactly the opposite. Models can be small and task specific, their training data contained and knowable, ridding the incentives for widespread exploitative and psychologically harmful labor practices and the all-consuming extractivism of producing and running massive supercomputers. The creation of AI can be community driven, consensual, respectful of local context and history; its application can uplift and strengthen marginalized communities; its governance can be inclusive and democratic.