Chinaās ruling elites have practical experience managing megaprojects, suggesting that China is doubling down on engineersā and prioritizing defenceā more than ever.
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Engineers have quite literally ruled modern China. As a corrective to the mayhem of the Mao years, Deng Xiaoping promoted engineers to the top ranks of Chinaās government throughout the 1980s and 1990s. By 2002, all nine members of the Politburoās standing committeeā the apex of the Communist Partyā had trained as engineers. General Secretary Hu Jintao studied hydraulic engineering and spent a decade building dams.
As the United States lost its enthusiasm for engineers, China embraced engineering in all its dimensions. Its leaders arenāt only civil or electrical engineers. They are, fundamentally, social engineers. Emperors didnāt hesitate to entirely restructure a person's relationship to the land, ordering mass migration into newly opened territories and conscripting the people to build great walls or grand canals. Modern rulers are here, too, far more ambitious than the emperors of the past. The Soviet Union inspired many of Beijingās leaders with a love of heavy industry and an enthusiasm to become engineers of the soulā a phrase from Joseph Staling repeated by Xi Jinpingā heaving Chinaās population into modernity and then some.
The Communist Party has relentlessly broken up entrenched interests, partly to prevent rich people from gaining political power and partly to spread material benefits throughout the country. Itās rise suggests that a country can grow powerful when it trains a lot of engineers and puts them to work, even under less-than-great institutional arrangements. In the words of one 1991 paper written by a trio of economists, āOur evidence shows that countries with a higher proportion of engineering college majors grow faster; whereas countries with a higher proportion of law concentrators grow more slowly.ā Engineers are part of the reason that China has grown so much wealthier, despite its wavering commitment to secure property rights.
An official like Li Zaiyong might be more interested in building a gleaming hospital filled with sophisticated equipment. Their attention drifts, however, when it comes to installing the trained technicians capable of operating the facility, since the Communist Party is better at rewarding new construction than health outcomes.
The control neurosis of the engineers is the fundamental limit to Chinaās power. But it will also push China to be an advanced manufacturer with dominant positions in many of the high-tech supply chains of the twenty-first century, with military capacity to match and a good chance to challenge US hegemony in Asia.